"In the first three quarters of this year, my country's aluminum production has generally maintained a steady growth trend." Jia Mingxing, vice president and secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said at the recent press conference on the operation of the nonferrous metals industry in the first three quarters. With the application fields Expansion, the aluminum industry's market outlook will be positive in the long term.

From January to September this year, the national alumina output was 58.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and the two-year average growth was 3.2%. The output of electrolytic aluminum was 29.15 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and the two-year average growth was 4.5%; the output of aluminum materials was 44.78 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and the two-year average growth was 9.0%. At the same time, my country's import and export trade of aluminum products is relatively normal. In the first three quarters, my country's bauxite imports were 81.53 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%; China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 4.07 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, an increase of It expanded by 3.6 percentage points in the first half of the year.

At present, aluminum prices in domestic and foreign markets are in a state of "high volatility". At the end of September this year, the closing prices of three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange were US$2,859/ton and 22,495 yuan/ton respectively, up 44.4% and 47.4% respectively from the closing prices at the end of last year.

Zhao Wuzhuang, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, believes that there are three main factors leading to the current rise in aluminum prices in domestic and foreign markets: First, the global loose monetary policy promotes the rise in commodity prices including aluminum; second, oil, natural gas, etc. Rising energy prices and tight power supply have caused aluminum production costs to rise, boosting aluminum prices. Third, the progress of epidemic prevention and control in various regions around the world is different, and market supply and demand are misaligned, driving up aluminum prices.

Under the guidance of the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, at the end of October, the spot aluminum price in the domestic market had stabilized at around 20,000 yuan/ton, which was somewhat lower than the average price in the third quarter. On November 18, the aluminum price was 18,475 yuan/ton.

Zhao Wuzhuang said that in the long-term production and operation practice, my country's aluminum industry has gradually understood the cycle of the commodity market. Although it cannot change the rules of the commodity cycle, it can use different control methods to affect the amplitude of cycle fluctuations and avoid irrationality. With big rises and big falls, we began to grasp the pro-cyclical, counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustment methods with the word "stability" in mind. Procyclical adjustments should highlight tracking and monitoring to lay a solid foundation for follow-up work. Countercyclical adjustments should highlight precision and decisiveness, grasp the crux of the problem, and act decisively. Cross-cyclical adjustments should highlight strategic vision, emphasize strategic layout, and ensure the stable operation of the economy, industries, and enterprises.

The proposal of the "dual carbon" goal is a major strategic opportunity for the optimization and upgrading of the non-ferrous metal industry structure, including the aluminum industry. In October this year, the State Council issued the "Action Plan for Carbon Peaking Before 2030", which requires the strict implementation of production capacity replacement and strict control of new production capacity. Currently, the annual carbon dioxide emissions from my country's aluminum industry exceed 470 million tons, which is an important area for my country to achieve carbon peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.